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Hybrid and plug-in EVs to surpass 3% of global sales by 2017: Pike Research

ABR Staff Writer Published 12 December 2011

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) combined will represent 3.1% of worldwide auto sales by 2017, according to a new report from Pike Research.

HEVs and PEVs will account for 5.1% of total US vehicle sales in 2017, due to higher penetration rates in the country, the report, "Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts", said.

Pike Research senior analyst Dave Hurst said the PEV market is anticipated to miss many of the targets set by governments because vehicle programs have not been launching as rapidly as expected even a year ago.

"Those targets aside, though, the EV market will grow at a rapid clip in the next six years - at a rate of nearly 20% a year, compared to fewer than 4% for the worldwide market for vehicles of all kinds," Hurst said.

The report highlighted that most rapid growth in the number of plug-in electric models is expected to be in the Asia Pacific region, followed by Europe and North America.

There will be 26 models of PEVs available in Asia Pacific by the end of 2011, compared to 23 models in Europe and ten in North America.

However, strong demand for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in North America will lead to the availability of 40 models by the end of 2012, versus 14 HEV models in Asia Pacific.

Pike Research anticipates that Ford will likely take the market lead by 2017 with 23.6% PEV market share, while Toyota (with a plug-in version of its popular Prius) and General Motors will likely find themselves fighting for second with 21.1% and 20.7% market share, respectively.

Startup Tesla's dealer strategy and high price point are expected to limit its market access; still, Pike Research expects market share for the startup to grow to 4.6% by 2017 from 2.2% in 2011.